A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
